Base31 and Picton's Growth Debate: What the 7,500-Home Plan Could Mean for the County
Updated: Sep 3
A former Second World War air training base just outside Picton is turning into a brand new community, and it's a big one. Base31 has moved past the planning stage, and the first homes are now being built. As the project grows, so does the debate: how big it should be, whether homes will really be affordable, who pays for water and sewer upgrades, and whether Picton can grow this much without losing what makes it feel like Picton
Interest picked up after a Toronto Star report, a lawsuit filed by former Base31 chief executive Tim Jones, and a heated County debate over a proposed $255.5-million water and wastewater borrowing strategy. People online are asking fair questions: Is the County footing the bill for a private developer's infrastructure? Was Base31 supposed to handle its own water in the first place? How much will homeowners pay in association fees? What happens if the housing market cools off? Are there hidden environmental risks? And can Picton handle growth this size without losing its character? Some of these questions have clear answers. Others genuinely don't, at least not yet.
A project bigger than anything Picton has seen
Base31 sits on 304 hectares (roughly 750 acres) southeast of Picton, envisioned as villages of housing, shops, workplaces, parks and amenities built around the historic air-force buildings that form the B31 District. County planning staff say the framework supports a minimum of about 5,000 residential units, a preferred density of roughly 7,500, and capacity for up to 10,000 over the project's life. That growth is meant to happen slowly, spread across 20 to 25 years, not all at once.
Even spread out over decades, the numbers are hard to ignore. The 2021 census counted 4,508 people living in Picton and 2,567 total homes, with 2,277 of those occupied by full-time residents (the other 290 are just listed as "not occupied by usual residents," which doesn't necessarily mean cottages or empty homes, despite what some social media posts have claimed). The 7,500 homes planned for Base31 alone would almost triple the number of homes Picton had in 2021. That's why the Star suggested the local population could eventually climb toward 20,000, though that's a long-term possibility, not something set in stone. Picton's median age is 58, and 37% of residents are 65 or older, which matters both for the kinds of homes needed and for who ends up paying rising infrastructure costs.
What has actually been approved
Base31 has cleared a lot of hurdles already, but not all 7,500 homes are approved and ready to build. The County's Area Concept Plan and a later Official Plan Amendment set the long-term framework, but finer land-use and infrastructure details still require further approvals. In June 2025, Ontario issued a Minister's Zoning Order (MZO) covering about 88 hectares, facilitating 650 to 1,000 units including 120 purpose-built rentals, requested by the County itself. That means the first neighbourhoods are cleared to proceed, while the full 7,500-home vision remains a phased program, not one fully permitted project.
The first area, Hilltop, is expected to include about 450 low-rise units plus a separate seven-storey, 120-unit rental building. As of August, developers were targeting September for servicing and October for the rental building's start.
Ontario also passed a new law, the Base31 Community Association Act, 2026 (Bill PR46), which requires everyone who buys property there to join a community association that sets fees and can place liens on homes if those fees go unpaid. At a council meeting in August, co-owner Jack Winberg said the first-phase fee for Hilltop would likely be under $600 a year, plus a similar charge for a community club. Those are early estimates from the developer for phase one, not locked-in numbers.
Will the homes actually be affordable?
The first phase is being marketed with detached homes, townhouses, and smaller condos, with prices starting at $299,000 for a 450-square-foot, one-bedroom unit with a garage, a price point some residents see as importing Greater Toronto Area development patterns rather than solving local affordability. Picton's Secondary Plan requires 5% affordable/attainable housing in new developments, and the first 120-unit rental building targets 10% affordability. Supporters say adding thousands of new homes, including types the County barely has right now, will still help supply overall; critics question whether 5% is enough for a project this size. The province's own MZO consultation recorded similar concerns about affordability and whether housing skews toward market or tourism demand.
The $255.5-million water debate
The widely cited $255.5-million figure is a base-case borrowing scenario within the County's broader water and wastewater strategy, covering existing deficiencies and future growth across Picton, Bloomfield and Wellington, not infrastructure built solely for Base31. The Picton plant dates to 1928 and needs replacement regardless of Base31's pace. Under this base case, a typical household's combined annual water/wastewater bill would rise from about $1,867 in 2026 to $2,724 in 2036, a 46% increase.
Crucially, council has not approved this spending: the Aug. 27 Committee of the Whole vote on the financing strategy failed, and the matter returns Sept. 8. Consultants say upfront developer financing could cut required municipal borrowing by roughly $75 million, with final cost-sharing still under negotiation. A separate $20.6-million federal grant announced in May will expand Wellington's wastewater plant. About 5,200 ratepayers currently fund the systems, with costs eventually spread across rates, development charges, grants, developer contributions and debt.
A lawsuit, a soil concern, and what happens next
Separately, Tim Jones, who owns a small 3.75% stake in the project, filed a lawsuit in 2026 claiming his former partners walked away from Base31's original mission of building a creative, community-focused space in favour of chasing faster profits
On the environmental front, tests confirmed elevated lead in the soil near Base31's Sensory Garden back in 2024, traced to old paint, and officials ordered steps to protect people's health. As for claims about PFAS contamination, there's no confirmed finding backing that up. It comes from general worries people raised during Ontario's public consultation, not from any actual test result, and that's an important distinction.
Bottom line: the planning framework is largely set, the first neighbourhood is under construction. But some of the biggest questions, like who pays for water infrastructure, what residents will owe in fees long-term, whether the homes are truly affordable, and how the Jones lawsuit plays out, are still up in the air. Base31 isn't guaranteed to be either a huge win or a disaster for Picton. It's a decades-long experiment, and the answers to its toughest questions are still being written.
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